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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 90-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |