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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min | 20-35 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |