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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds45-60 min1-5 Tage1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten2-8NutzertrafficNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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