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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds45-60 min15-60 min je Zyklus1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten2-81-86-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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