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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |