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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |