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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 1-4 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | SensemakingDecisionRationale | RiskDecisionSensemaking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |