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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |