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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min | Half day | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |