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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-5 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |