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| Criterion |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | WasteLeanProcess improvement | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |