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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale |