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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |