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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 15-45 min | 60-180 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 1-8 | 4-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |