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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | laufend | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 2-12 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |