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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 3-10 | 4-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning |