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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 3-10 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |