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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |