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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-180 min | 1-4 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 4-20 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionSensemaking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |