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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |