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| Criterion |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |