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Criterion
Paper illustration of two people facing each other, speech bubbles and an open interview notebook.
UX Research
User Interviews
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When teams derive needs only from assumptions and real motives are missing, user interviews give direct access to behavior and meaning. Conversations from the target group's everyday life make patterns, tensions, and open questions solidly visible.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighLow
Timedifferent
30–60 min per interview1-4 WochenHalf day45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1 participant per interview6-30 Experten3-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interview Notes, Themes, Insight SummaryExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesValue Chain Map, Lever ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
QualitativeResearchCustomerDiscovery
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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