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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |