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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | WasteLeanProcess improvement | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |