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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | WasteLeanProcess improvement | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |