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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-120 min | 2-4 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | WasteLeanProcess improvement | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationForecastingFlow |