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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 5-15 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |