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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | KnowledgeMappingRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |