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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 90-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |