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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1-3 h45-90 min30-120 min
Participantsdifferent
1-84-102-52-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisObservation Notes, Improvement Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
LeanObservationProcessOperations
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