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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-3 Tage | 15-45 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 5-15 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |