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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-3 Tage | laufend | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 5-15 | 2-12 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | EstimationForecastingFlow | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |