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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Growth Funnel Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | 1-3 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AnalyticsConversionGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |