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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Three-Point Estimation | ![]() Product Discovery Smoke Test | ![]() Product Discovery Experiment Canvas | ![]() Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |



