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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | 4-12 Experten | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |