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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |