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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |