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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h | 45-60 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |