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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Process Mapping method illustration showing its working structure
Operations
Process Mapping
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.With a confusing workflow that has many handoffs, the method makes the actual process visible. It shows where work is passed on, delayed, or duplicated, so improvement targets the right spots.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1-3 hHalber Tag30-120 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-105-202-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesProcess Map, Handoff List, Improvement BacklogSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksObservation Notes, Improvement Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ProcessOperationsImprovement
ResilienceOperationsIncident
LeanObservationProcessOperations
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