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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |