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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |