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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Opportunity Scoring |  Product Discovery Jobs to Be Done |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When opportunities need ranking by their effect, it makes importance and satisfaction directly comparable. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as an opportunity-score table and top outcomes. | When switching motives and progress are unclear, it reconstructs the situation from real customer circumstances. It shows why a switch happens and what kind of progress is being sought. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 60-120 min | 1-3 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-6 | 5-12 Interviews |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Opportunity Score Table, Top Outcomes | Job Stories, Outcome Statements, Opportunity List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | PrioritizationDiscoveryOutcomesNeeds | CustomerOutcomesNeeds |