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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Agile ROAM Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 3-15 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | ROAM Board, Owner List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment |