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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskRoot causeSafety | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |