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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of the Lightning Decision Jam working structure.
Facilitation
Decision Jam
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When a decision is stuck, Decision Jam loosens the knot through structured separation of problem, idea, and selection. The format creates movement without jumping prematurely at the first seemingly elegant answer.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item15-45 min60-90 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-81-84-106-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesProblem Cluster, Prioritized Challenge, ExperimentExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
FacilitationDecisionProblem solvingWorkshop
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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