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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Operations Kaizen Event |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | For a tightly scoped process segment with noticeable waste, the method bundles shared energy for change. It suits situations that call for fast learning loops and visible adjustments. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 0.5-5 Tage | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Kaizen Charter, Waste List, Improvement Experiments, Standard Work Update | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | LeanContinuous improvementOperations | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |