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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1 h bis mehrere Wochen30-120 min15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-61-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
LeanObservationProcessOperations
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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