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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | laufend | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |