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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | laufend | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |