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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | laufend | Half day | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-12 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability |